Understanding Turkey-EU relations through institutional change

(Gulay Icoz, Royal Holloway College, University of London)

The stability of Turkish National Security Council was affected in 2001 and 2003 when the government changed its composition and duties. The general perception is that these changes were designed to weaken the NSC's position in the Turkish political system and contribute to the processes of democratization; and it is widely assumed that these changes were driven by the need to prepare Turkey for accession to the European Union. On this reading the role of domestic politics in Turkey is not considered important when understanding how change is initiated. This paper will argue that greater focus on the domestic political environment is needed when analysing the origins of policy change. The paper will be divided into four parts. In the first I will consider the EU's perception of the Turkish National Security Council by looking at its regular reports on Turkey, covering the years between 1999-2003. In the second I will introduce the concept of punctuated equilibrium and argue institutions are characterised by long periods of stability, periodically "punctuated" by crises that bring about relatively abrupt institutional change. In the third I will aim to show that closure of Necmettin Erbakan’s Welfare party in 1997 and Abdullah Ocalan's capture in 1999 should be considered as key factors contributing to these institutional changes. Lastly, I want to show that these changes to the NSC and the changes in domestic environment helped the AKP government to strengthen Turkish and EU relations.